The GOP, whether it realizes it yet or no, is in the position of helpless hostage to its bolshevik vanguard faction (the Bannonist wing of MAGA) whose program is to institute a permanent authoritarian minority regime. This wing may be relatively small in numbers, and includes in its membership a large proportion of foolish useful true-believer tools, but it alone has a mission and a plan. The rest of the party is mesmerized into servile compliance by its grifter entertainment wing. This group is not so much a faction as an ad hoc mob of opportunists, narcissists, con artists; they really have no common program or goal other than aggrandizing themselves, so they are fine with the bolshevik program as long as it assures them scope for looting, pillaging, and making spectacles of themselves. Probably the most astute among them understand that a Bannonist/MAGAist gangster regime will yield up more road kill than a real democracy, so they are more than happy to travel along. The rest of the grift brigade, if they devote any time to thought at all, participate on the Willie Sutton principal: rob the banks, because that's where the big money is.
There remains no GOP center capable of charting and pursuing any other course. Those inclined to try have had the encouragement knocked out of them by the incontrovertibly instructive examples set up for their edification by the bolsheviks. The center remnant has abandoned hope, and become inert, powerless spectators. So if the GOP prevails, whatever individual figure actually becomes President, no matter if it be Trump himself, or a DeSantis or Lake, or Yehudi -- he/she will be either a leader or a tool of the bolsheviks.
Hence either way, win or lose, the future of the party will require following its ruling program to its logical conclusion; having crossed its Rubicon, it cannot afford to stop short of ensuring permanent dominance in a nation where it is actually a minority. The party calling itself the GOP is irrevocably committed to attempting a Trumpian authoritarian takeover -- purging the military, stacking the DOJ with stooges, vitiating or eliminating the civil service, controlling the media and the courts, rewarding its servants and crushing its foes. Having once attained supremacy, no minority authoritarian regime can afford to relinquish it, even a little. Ask the Shah. Ask Gorbachev. There can only be one direction: forward, straight to hell.
So frankly, there is no hope whatever of preventing a GOP disaster. It is hard to see how even a massive electoral defeat -- which would be a true black swan event -- could deflect the GOP from its trajectory. The bolshies are not in it to win elections; they are in it it to wipe away the ancien regime. Electoral defeat would be a setback only, and so long as the electoral system ensures they will have another try and another after that, their indominable will to prevail will only strengthen. The only thing defeat would accomplish is hardening their belief that electoral democracy is incompatible with the world they want to bring into being, hence true electoral democracy must be eliminated. A close election loss would teach that the prize is almost in their grasp, and persistence will push them over the top to final victory. It's a one-way ratchet.
Either the bolshies will prevail or they will fail in 2024; either way, a disaster -- for the party and the nation. If they fail, they will try again, with even more ruthless determination. If they win, they will finish the job. What will not happen is the monster that once was the GOP ever again becoming a partner in a free electoral republic of law. That star is no longer in their firmament.
The best thing that could happen to the republican party and our democracy is for t**** to take his MAGA and leave. One can hope it would split republicans right down to the local level and perhaps break some of their tyrannies of the minority to allow a return to real democracy.
RE: "Trump is still a threat to Republican chances if he isn’t the nominee"
DJT is a threat to the whole civil world! He's a mixture of King Midas & Lot - everything he gets involved in turns into a pillar of salt! I would have no doubt that failing the votes for nomination, he would hold the GOP hostage. But DIG THIS! I can imagine (not far fetched) him losing and claiming a fraudulent vote count! Then where would the next insurrection be? Take that 01/06/21!
-"No obstruction. No colusion."
Not as poetic as B. Clinton's, "It depends what IS is," but a hallmark bold face lie nonetheless.
First of all, I want to see a healthy GOP. It’s not enough for the GOP to win again if this MAGA sickness is not expunged. Until it is expunged, I want to see the GOP lose bigly politically at every level. Getting rid of Trump <> expunging MAGA.
As for Trump, the leverage he gets from the “threat” of running 3rd-party is probably more valuable to him than actually running 3rd-party. I get the “burn-it-all-down” thinking but I ask myself: is it enough for to actually engage in a 3rd-party campaign? What does he really gain if he plays that card? Maybe it allows him to spend his campaign funds on some of his own businesses, that may be enough of a motivation for him. However, once he plays it, it is spent and he risks losing the remaining influence he has w/ the voters. Plus, there is a part of the GOP that actually values his ability to help squash moderates in the GOP primaries at all levels. IDK, but I think a deal w/ the devil that allows Trump to get paid and sustains his influence w/ the voters is more likely than a 3rd-party run. The GOP is rotten to the core and any hope of this changing w/o expunging MAGA is seriously wishful thinking.
Loyalty only works one way as far as trump is concerned - he has no loyalty to either the party or the country. Those left in the GOP management who still have a brain know this perfectly well. They have now painted themselves into a corner - can't win with him, can't win without him. Because the percentage of the base who would go with him would take them down. The only thing they can do is get busy on inventing a time machine - and go back and make damn sure he DOESN'T win in 2016.
I confess that I do not “have other ideas for how the GOP might avoid sleepwalking into a Trump disaster in 2024”. I’m just planning to stock up on popcorn. Anticipating the unraveling of the GOP in its current Trumpy iteration promises a delicious front row seat to witness the endurance of our free democratic society. I’m ready for the tide to turn decisively as we live through these “unprecedented times!”
I'd keep it simple.He is the only sitting president in history to violently challenge the peaceful transition of power.Despite plenty of allegations of fraud -NONE-ZERO-NADA came to bear fruit.Every competitor needs to start every debate with this and pound it home until his base wakes up to this.He sure won't.
Wow,, a choice among Trump, DeSantis, and someone else? Doesn’t any Republican care about honesty, integrity, democracy, or governing? Or, is it only about vengeance, anti-woke, racism, corruption, and owning the libs. This seems to be more a choice among Curly, Mo, and the third one.
"But would Trump accept losing and putting his support behind DeSantis for the sake of the party’s electoral prospects?"
A thousand times no for the simple reason that Trump does not care about the party. Or the conservative movement or any of its positions with the exception of tax cuts for the rich since those benefit him personally. What people need to understand is that Donald Trump does not care about anything or anyone other than Donald Trump. Nothing and no one. Once you understand and accept that basic principle, everything he says and does makes absolute perfect sense.
Trump may be in need of a pardon. It strikes me that he has some powerful leverage to wield here, and all he has to do is - do nothing. Back off, and go away. But standing in the way is his ego, his narcissistic need for attention, and his innate cruelty. Those are powerful, powerful impulses in Trump. What could outweigh them? Maybe fear of conviction and greed. But there is a deal lurking somewhere in the future.
The GOP, whether it realizes it yet or no, is in the position of helpless hostage to its bolshevik vanguard faction (the Bannonist wing of MAGA) whose program is to institute a permanent authoritarian minority regime. This wing may be relatively small in numbers, and includes in its membership a large proportion of foolish useful true-believer tools, but it alone has a mission and a plan. The rest of the party is mesmerized into servile compliance by its grifter entertainment wing. This group is not so much a faction as an ad hoc mob of opportunists, narcissists, con artists; they really have no common program or goal other than aggrandizing themselves, so they are fine with the bolshevik program as long as it assures them scope for looting, pillaging, and making spectacles of themselves. Probably the most astute among them understand that a Bannonist/MAGAist gangster regime will yield up more road kill than a real democracy, so they are more than happy to travel along. The rest of the grift brigade, if they devote any time to thought at all, participate on the Willie Sutton principal: rob the banks, because that's where the big money is.
There remains no GOP center capable of charting and pursuing any other course. Those inclined to try have had the encouragement knocked out of them by the incontrovertibly instructive examples set up for their edification by the bolsheviks. The center remnant has abandoned hope, and become inert, powerless spectators. So if the GOP prevails, whatever individual figure actually becomes President, no matter if it be Trump himself, or a DeSantis or Lake, or Yehudi -- he/she will be either a leader or a tool of the bolsheviks.
Hence either way, win or lose, the future of the party will require following its ruling program to its logical conclusion; having crossed its Rubicon, it cannot afford to stop short of ensuring permanent dominance in a nation where it is actually a minority. The party calling itself the GOP is irrevocably committed to attempting a Trumpian authoritarian takeover -- purging the military, stacking the DOJ with stooges, vitiating or eliminating the civil service, controlling the media and the courts, rewarding its servants and crushing its foes. Having once attained supremacy, no minority authoritarian regime can afford to relinquish it, even a little. Ask the Shah. Ask Gorbachev. There can only be one direction: forward, straight to hell.
So frankly, there is no hope whatever of preventing a GOP disaster. It is hard to see how even a massive electoral defeat -- which would be a true black swan event -- could deflect the GOP from its trajectory. The bolshies are not in it to win elections; they are in it it to wipe away the ancien regime. Electoral defeat would be a setback only, and so long as the electoral system ensures they will have another try and another after that, their indominable will to prevail will only strengthen. The only thing defeat would accomplish is hardening their belief that electoral democracy is incompatible with the world they want to bring into being, hence true electoral democracy must be eliminated. A close election loss would teach that the prize is almost in their grasp, and persistence will push them over the top to final victory. It's a one-way ratchet.
Either the bolshies will prevail or they will fail in 2024; either way, a disaster -- for the party and the nation. If they fail, they will try again, with even more ruthless determination. If they win, they will finish the job. What will not happen is the monster that once was the GOP ever again becoming a partner in a free electoral republic of law. That star is no longer in their firmament.
The best thing that could happen to the republican party and our democracy is for t**** to take his MAGA and leave. One can hope it would split republicans right down to the local level and perhaps break some of their tyrannies of the minority to allow a return to real democracy.
RE: "Trump is still a threat to Republican chances if he isn’t the nominee"
DJT is a threat to the whole civil world! He's a mixture of King Midas & Lot - everything he gets involved in turns into a pillar of salt! I would have no doubt that failing the votes for nomination, he would hold the GOP hostage. But DIG THIS! I can imagine (not far fetched) him losing and claiming a fraudulent vote count! Then where would the next insurrection be? Take that 01/06/21!
-"No obstruction. No colusion."
Not as poetic as B. Clinton's, "It depends what IS is," but a hallmark bold face lie nonetheless.
First of all, I want to see a healthy GOP. It’s not enough for the GOP to win again if this MAGA sickness is not expunged. Until it is expunged, I want to see the GOP lose bigly politically at every level. Getting rid of Trump <> expunging MAGA.
As for Trump, the leverage he gets from the “threat” of running 3rd-party is probably more valuable to him than actually running 3rd-party. I get the “burn-it-all-down” thinking but I ask myself: is it enough for to actually engage in a 3rd-party campaign? What does he really gain if he plays that card? Maybe it allows him to spend his campaign funds on some of his own businesses, that may be enough of a motivation for him. However, once he plays it, it is spent and he risks losing the remaining influence he has w/ the voters. Plus, there is a part of the GOP that actually values his ability to help squash moderates in the GOP primaries at all levels. IDK, but I think a deal w/ the devil that allows Trump to get paid and sustains his influence w/ the voters is more likely than a 3rd-party run. The GOP is rotten to the core and any hope of this changing w/o expunging MAGA is seriously wishful thinking.
Loyalty only works one way as far as trump is concerned - he has no loyalty to either the party or the country. Those left in the GOP management who still have a brain know this perfectly well. They have now painted themselves into a corner - can't win with him, can't win without him. Because the percentage of the base who would go with him would take them down. The only thing they can do is get busy on inventing a time machine - and go back and make damn sure he DOESN'T win in 2016.
Maybe the GOP will take a page from the FSB (formerly KGB) playbook and poison him or push him out of a window? I’m just asking a question.
I confess that I do not “have other ideas for how the GOP might avoid sleepwalking into a Trump disaster in 2024”. I’m just planning to stock up on popcorn. Anticipating the unraveling of the GOP in its current Trumpy iteration promises a delicious front row seat to witness the endurance of our free democratic society. I’m ready for the tide to turn decisively as we live through these “unprecedented times!”
I'd keep it simple.He is the only sitting president in history to violently challenge the peaceful transition of power.Despite plenty of allegations of fraud -NONE-ZERO-NADA came to bear fruit.Every competitor needs to start every debate with this and pound it home until his base wakes up to this.He sure won't.
Wow,, a choice among Trump, DeSantis, and someone else? Doesn’t any Republican care about honesty, integrity, democracy, or governing? Or, is it only about vengeance, anti-woke, racism, corruption, and owning the libs. This seems to be more a choice among Curly, Mo, and the third one.
How can the GOP avoid a 2024 Trump disaster?
Find a way to get rid of him. Now. The sooner the better.
If that means party leaders bad mouth Trump openly, do it. Whatever it takes.
Trump is a ball and chain on the GOP.
But if Tucker Carlson were to run, would so much of that base remain attached to Trump? And a Carlson presidency would be far, far worse than Trump.
Sorry about the Niners.
The GOP cannot avoid a trump disaster in 2024 because they enabled said disaster in 2016.
"But would Trump accept losing and putting his support behind DeSantis for the sake of the party’s electoral prospects?"
A thousand times no for the simple reason that Trump does not care about the party. Or the conservative movement or any of its positions with the exception of tax cuts for the rich since those benefit him personally. What people need to understand is that Donald Trump does not care about anything or anyone other than Donald Trump. Nothing and no one. Once you understand and accept that basic principle, everything he says and does makes absolute perfect sense.
Trump may be in need of a pardon. It strikes me that he has some powerful leverage to wield here, and all he has to do is - do nothing. Back off, and go away. But standing in the way is his ego, his narcissistic need for attention, and his innate cruelty. Those are powerful, powerful impulses in Trump. What could outweigh them? Maybe fear of conviction and greed. But there is a deal lurking somewhere in the future.
So many dissembling asshats.